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UFC 101 Betting Predictions

Posted by Gene Morris on August 6, 2009

With UFC 101 coming up Saturday night in Philadelphia, I thought it would be interesting to look at the current wagering lines on Bodog Sportsbook and put my predictions down in writing.

Because these will be based on the betting lines, there will obviously be some match ups that I wouldn’t feel comfortable playing. Also, keep in mind that predicting the underdog would result in a much better pay out than just picking the favorites. To keep everything uniform I’ll use 100 units over each event.

BJ Penn (-280) vs. Kenny Florian (+220)

I think Kenny Florian is a great competitor and has improved fight by fight since losing a title match to Sean Sherk back at UFC 64. In his last two fights he’s defeated contenders Joe Stevenson and Roger Huerta, even finishing Stevenson in the first round.

But I still believe BJ Penn’s skill will be to much for him to handle. Penn is a world class fighter whose talent has never been questioned. The only thing holding him back was his lack of desire and conditioning. Apparently BJ has left the comfort of Hawaii to seriously train for this fight in California with trainer Marv Marinovich, and I believe his cardio will be in tip top shape, especially coming back from his loss in January to Georges St-Pierre.

Penn addressed his training situation earlier in the summer when he posted this vlog on Youtube.

No disrespect is meant to Florian, but a dedicated and in shape BJ Penn would beat just about any other 155-lb fighter in the entire world. And Florian is no different.

Prediction: BJ Penn (-280) over Kenny Florian
Bet: Bet 55 to win 20

Anderson Silva (-365) vs. Forrest Griffin (+285)

This fight is going to be a huge test for Silva, who is moving up to the 205-lb weight class for the second time in the UFC after defending his 185-lb belt with two lackluster fights over the last nine months. Silva toyed with Patrick Cote for three rounds before Cote blew out his knee at UFC 90. He had a similar uninspired performance at UFC 97 against Thales Leites, a fight in which Leites refused to engage and Silva won in a decision.

Forrest Griffin is the perfect opponent for Silva coming off those last two fights. Griffin will have no problem engaging, and is known as one of the toughest fighters in the UFC. After defeating Quintin “Rampage” Jackson for the Light Heavyweight Championship at UFC 86, Griffin dropped the belt to Rashad Evans in December at UFC 92.

The original Ultimate Fighter winner is someone else who has greatly improved right before our eyes. His victory over Shogun Rua at UFC 76 put Griffin on the map as a legitimate contender, but it was always known that he would stand and slug with anyone put in front of him.

Silva has the better striking between these two, although Silva is a better striker than just about anyone in the UFC. He hasn’t been tested much on the ground, but Griffin has a solid ground game himself.

Because he’s moving up in weight and fighting a tough as nails competitor in Griffin, I wouldn’t have expected Silva to be such a heavy favorite. Griffin is a massive 205-lb fighter, and I think his size and strength will give Silva problems.

While I wouldn’t be shocked to see Silva fire out of the chute and use his plethora of kicks, punches, knees, and elbows in an early demolition of Griffin, I’m feeling Forrest in an upset. I think he will grind Silva down, and possibly finish him in the third round.

Prediction: Forrest Griffin (+285) over Anderson Silva (-365)
Bet: 20 to win 57

Ricardo Almedia (-160) vs. Kendall Grove (+130)
Bet: Almeida (-160), Bet 15 to win 9

Josh Neer (-250) vs. Kurt Pelligrino (+190)
Bet: Pelligrino (+190), Best 10 to win 19

Final Bets:
BJ Penn (-280), Bet 55 to win 20
Forrest Griffin (+265), Bet 20 to win 57
Ricardo Almeida (-160), Bet 15 to win 9
Kurt Pelligrino (+190), Bet 10 to win 19

Non-betting: Johny Hendricks decision over Amir Sadollah

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